18) 120-Day Forecast
12/10/06
Dear Henry,
I've followed your work for years. Thank you for your (real world) expertise in the appraisal field. What is your opinion on ERC'S 120 day forecast requirement? I'm of the opinion if the property is marketed according to its neighborhood -- not an
over-inflated listing price -- the property should sell within a typical market time appropriate for that area. However, the Relo company insists on a 120 day forecast. The crystal ball method.
Thanks in advance for your response.
Tammy Laughlin 3galvin@bellsouth.net
Dear Tammy,
ERC apparently has decided they need this 120 day forecast. They are the client and if you want to do work for them, you are going to have to give them what they want. [In general, I feel you should give the client what they want, as this is good marketing.]
That said, keep in mind that the USPAP has very specific requirements for prospective appraisals, which in my opinion is what you are being asked to make. You have to make a bunch of assumptions about the market and the property and your opinion of value is conditional upon these assumptions turning out to be correct. Since the validity of your future value estimate depends upon the working of your crystal ball, I hope you have some gypsy blood in your family.
H2
I've followed your work for years. Thank you for your (real world) expertise in the appraisal field. What is your opinion on ERC'S 120 day forecast requirement? I'm of the opinion if the property is marketed according to its neighborhood -- not an
over-inflated listing price -- the property should sell within a typical market time appropriate for that area. However, the Relo company insists on a 120 day forecast. The crystal ball method.
Thanks in advance for your response.
Tammy Laughlin 3galvin@bellsouth.net
Dear Tammy,
ERC apparently has decided they need this 120 day forecast. They are the client and if you want to do work for them, you are going to have to give them what they want. [In general, I feel you should give the client what they want, as this is good marketing.]
That said, keep in mind that the USPAP has very specific requirements for prospective appraisals, which in my opinion is what you are being asked to make. You have to make a bunch of assumptions about the market and the property and your opinion of value is conditional upon these assumptions turning out to be correct. Since the validity of your future value estimate depends upon the working of your crystal ball, I hope you have some gypsy blood in your family.
H2